Our confidence score reflects how well-supported a valuation is by real market evidence. It's not a guarantee — it's a measure of how much data backs our estimate. Higher confidence means more direct market precedent and stronger identification. Lower confidence means more uncertainty remains.

Think of it like a weather forecast: 90% confidence means the data strongly supports this range. 50% means conditions are murkier — the range is wider and a professional appraisal may be worthwhile.

Comparable Market Evidence50% weight
How many strong comps did we find, and how closely do they match this specific item? The strongest support is a direct sold match for the same maker, era, model, or form, whether it comes from auction, a specialist dealer, or another relevant resale channel.
ScoreCriteria
90–100%3+ direct comps from strong market sources for the same maker, item type, era/model, and condition
70–89%2+ good comps with minor differences (size, condition, configuration, materials, or variant details)
50–69%Comps exist, but they are broader category matches or comparable variants rather than item-specific
<50%Few reliable comps; estimate relies more on broader market patterns and available evidence
Identification Certainty30% weight
How confident are we in what this item actually is? Misidentification is the #1 source of valuation error — a Republic-era censer vs. a modern reproduction can mean a 20× price difference.
ScoreCriteria
90–100%Maker's mark confirmed, era established, form and materials verified
70–89%Strong attribution with minor ambiguity (e.g., era within a 50-year range)
50–69%Multiple plausible attributions with meaningfully different values
<50%Identification uncertain; could be several very different things
Evidence Coverage20% weight
How much physical evidence do we have? Diagnostic photos, measurements, weight, and physical test results all improve accuracy.
ScoreCriteria
90–100%Key diagnostic photos (base, marks, interior, macro), weight, measurements, physical tests
70–89%Good photos but missing 1–2 key diagnostics
50–69%Basic photos only, limited physical evidence
<50%Single photo, no physical evidence

Confidence describes how well-supported the estimate is, not whether professional appraisal is optional. For any important decision, especially involving valuable items, consult a qualified appraiser before buying, selling, insuring, donating, or relying on a price range.

90%+
Strong
Multiple direct comps and strong identification support the range, but professional appraisal is still recommended before acting on a valuable item.
70–89%
Good
Solid market support with minor unknowns. Use professional appraisal before setting or accepting a price on an important item.
50–69%
Moderate
Reasonable estimate, but meaningful unknowns remain. Professional appraisal is recommended before relying on the range for a key decision.
<50%
Low
Broad directional estimate only. Hands-on professional appraisal is strongly recommended before any buying, selling, or insurance decision.

You can improve your report's confidence by providing more evidence: